asagidaki haber-yorum bugun ajansalara gecilmis.
Obama Biden vasitasi ile Kirkuk ile ilgili mektup yollamis.
bu haber-yorum ABD nin Kirkuk isini bir an once comzem istegini gosteriyor. zaten haber de Kirkuk petrolunun bu kriz aninda ise yarayacgina deginilmis. ayrica bu kriz sursince herkese buyuk mablaglara malolan bu gecikmeye tahamul edilmeyecegine dair isaretler de var.
bu ekonomik gerekcelrin disinda baska bir onemli gerekce de-Kirkuk etrafinda cikabilecek bir ic catisam olasiginin Obama yonetimini cok kotu durumda birakacagi belirtilmis. mevzu gecen gunlerde (bu ahaber-yorumu yazan kisi tarafindan ) Nation da tartisilmis(ABD nin onde gelen fikir dergilerinden biridir-Hanife bu nakaleyi bulup bize (vakti varsa) aktarirsa iyi olur.

Biden eger haber-yorum dogru ise bugunlerde Kirkuk de.
haber yorumcunun kafasindaki yorum ile biden :obama cozum formulu ayni mi ?
simdilik bilmiyoruz. yorumcu yazinin icinde soyle bir laf etmis:
"allahtan Biden daha once onerdigi soft ayrilma formulunu terketti"
acaba bu kani dogru mu?
veya Biden bu ilk formulunden ne kadar sapti?
veya nicin sapmak zorunda kaldi.
bunlari tabii bizim tartismamiz sadece bizim merakimizin otesinde br islevi yok.
ama tam bu islerin baslamsindan once LAT verile kurd demecleri (once talaban nin bir gorevlisi kontrollu tehdid etmis-is uzarsa zor kullanarak Kerkuk u almak zorunda kalabilirz demis-Los Angles Time(yazida bu habere link var)
ayrica son M barzani gorusmesi de kisaca soyle yorumlanmis:

barzani irag merkezi hukumeti/maliki otoriter.sentralize egilimlerinden vaz gecmezse ayrilma hakkimizi kullaniriz!

ve yazida barzani nin kurdler icin Qubek veya isvicre kanton modelini uygun gordugu oysa kurd taleplerinin bu modelerin sundugu imkanlarin otesinde oldugu yaziliyor. (yaziyi yazan kisi her kimse kurd taleplerini fazla buldugu kesin-umarim Biden bu cozum turuna girismeden once kurd taleplerini fazla bulmuyordur,

yazidan arap turkmen ve kurd pozisyonlarina hepimizin bildigi bicimde yer verilmis. nufus dagilimindan hic soz edilmiyor (oysa kurdlerin en guclu kozu bu)
bence arap pozisyonun bu diplomaside en zayif kanat. kerkuk un araplarin istedigi bicimde merkezi iraq denetiminde birakilmasini abd de istese bile beceremez.
kurd talebi (kerkuk un direk KRG ye baglanmasi) ise sidetli aarap trkmen (turkiye) tepkisine yol acacagi icin abd bunu makul bulsa bile kabule yanasmayacaktir.
geride orta yol kaliyor ki- asagidaki makale bence yapayanlis bicimde sanki turkmenlerin kerkuk icin orta yol cozumu oneren tarafmis gibi sunuyor (nerdeyse boyle-bu hususta ozel cumleler sarfedilmemis ama tek cumle le ozetledikleri turkmen pozisyonu Kirkuk u ozel statude (ne bagdad a ne de KRG ye bagli olmadan ozel statu ile tutulmak) tutmaktan yana.(oysa biz bilyoruz ki turkmen tezi aslinda kerkuk un bagdad a bagli kalmasina ugrasiyor. nicin?

ozel statu zaman icinde kurdler aklini kullanirsa ve dominant nufus hakimiyetleri sebebi ile sehrin de facto hakimiyetini kurdlere kaymasina yol acacak bir yere evrilebilecegini hissediyorlar-bu benim yorumum.

yazinin br yerinde hidistan da bir sehrin ki taraf arasinda nasil paylasildigina dair ornek de var- bu da irkuk un dual kullanim modeli oluyor
(hindistan daki br kent iki ayri bolgenin ayni anda baskaneti olmus)-bunu kirkuk e uygularsak kuzey kirkuk mesala KRG nin idari merkezi olsa-gney de arap turkmen nufusa kalsa(ve bir birilerini yeseler). pek de fena olmaz.

gueylilerin kuskusuz bu isleri izleyen ekipleri vardir. kuzeyliler olara bizlerde 10 yil oncesine kiyasla artik bu meseleyi gunu birlik gelismeler duseyinde izleyebildigimiz gore buyuk bir gelismenin icindeyiz demektir. hele hele kurdlere en buyuk modern haksizliklarin yapildigi 100-150 yil oncesine (ulus devletlerin kristalize oldugu donemler) kiyasla artik kurdler tekrar torbaya sokulamayacak durumdalar. ben buna gelisme derim. hep olumsuzluklardan degil olumlu seylerden de bahsetmek lazim.

tercume olmadi ama bana gore boylesi daha makbul-kurd dokunusu pasif tercumeden iyidir. ancak haberi biz e algilayalim belkide yanlis yorumladin diyenlere
iki onerim var
1-cat pat da olsa ingilzice ogrenmek (kurdce ogrenmek kadar ise yarayacaktir)
2-hanife gibi kisleri hosh tutarak tercume talep etme yerine vakif makif dernek mernek artik her neyse bir tercume burosu turunde calisan internet uzeri isbirligi yapan bir olusum kurmaya kalmalari(mumkun olabilecegi en kisa surede calisanlarina tercue karslii para odeyebilecek sekilde) bunlar olmadan
kirkuk e de diyarbekir de kolayca sahip olunamiyor.

ee gunun mesajini da araya sokusturdugumuza gore ihmal etmekten kotu durumlara dusecegim isime doneyim

hurmetler
HeK

Biden in Iraq: Mission Possible?
Obama sends Personal Letter to Kirkuk

Incoming Vice President Joe Biden was in Kirkuk, Iraq, Tuesday afternoon. According to al-Hayat writing in Arabic, he is on a fact-finding mission and will report back on the current situation to President-Elect Barack Obama, with a view toward setting Iraq strategy when the new administration convenes after next Tuesday. Al-Zaman is reporting that he delivered a personal letter from Obama to the Kirkuk Provincial Council.
Cont'd

In Baghdad on Tuesday morning, Biden had met with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and assured him that the Obama administration will conduct a "responsible" withdrawal of troops from Iraq that does not threaten security gains of the past few months. US military commanders characterize those gains as "fragile." As it is, the Bush administration signed an agreement with Iraq to have all US troops out by the end of 2011.

I was glad to see Biden visit Kirkuk, which is the center of increasing tension between Arabs and Kurds, and between Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan Regional Government and al-Maliki's central government in Iraq. According to AP's intrepid Robert H. Reid, Ribwar Faiq Talabani gave this account of the meeting:

' Behind closed doors, Biden said the U.S. was spending billions of dollars some of it in Kirkuk which could be used to help solve the global financial meltdown, according to Ribwar Faiq Talabani, a local official who attended the session. Biden insisted that the Iraqis solve their disputes through concessions and compromise. But Kurdish representatives repeated their demand that Kirkuk be incorporated into their self-ruled region, and the Arabs insisted the city remain under central government control. Turkomen representatives suggested Kirkuk become its own self-governing region, Talabani said. '

Ribwar Faiq Talabani is a Kurdish member of the Kirkuk provincial council who has sometimes chaired it and who a year ago talked to the LAT about Kurds losing patience and taking Kirkuk by force. The Kurdistan Regional Government is made up of three former provinces of Iraq-- Dohuk, Irbil and Sulaymaniya, but those provincial boundaries have been erased and the administration of the three has been merged. The KRG wants to annex Kirkuk province as a fourth, but is meeting resistance from the province's Arabs and Kurds, from the central government in Baghdad, and from Turkey. Kirkuk oil fields export roughly 300,000 barrels a day of petroleum through a pipeline that runs through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

KRG President Massoud Barzani gave an interview with Ned Parker this weekend in which he slammed PM al-Maliki for what he called authoritarian tendencies and threatened to secede from Iraq if he did not get his way. He meant by 'authoritarian tendencies' al-Maliki's insistence on a strong, French-style central government, whereas Barzani says he favors a Canadian or Swiss model (though Kurdish demands for autonomy go substantially beyond what is given to Quebec by Ottawa or to the Swiss cantons).

Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that according to a member of the Kirkuk Provincial Council, Biden brought a letter to the council from Obama, "which expressed his special interest in that province."

Al-Hayat says that Biden stressed that a consensual resolution of the Kirkuk issue is of the greatest importance to the United States. Turkmen representative Tahassun Kahya told the pan-Arab London daily that he conveyed to Biden the Turkmen demand that Kirkuk remain a separate, united province with administrative divisions. (That is, this Turkmen plan for Kirkuk seems to involve the sort of soft partition that Biden once advocated for Iraq as a whole. Thankfully, Biden appears not to have brought up his earlier scheme, which proved very unpopular in Iraq and was denounced by everyone in parliament but the Kurds).

These reports of Obama stressing the importance of a resolution in Kirkuk are great good news. I argue in the current issue of The Nation,
' Obama could help make sure that the troop withdrawal goes smoothly by engaging in the sort of hands-on, intelligent and far-seeing diplomacy the previous administration was either uninterested in or incapable of. He should seek a concrete plan for the disposition of Kirkuk before the United States loses all leverage in Iraq. It might be possible, for instance, to partition the province so that the Kurdish population can join the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Turkmen and Arabs can have their own province and remain in Iraq proper. The city of Kirkuk could also be partitioned or could have a dual role. The city of Chandigargh in India is the capital of both Punjab and Haryana provinces, after all. The oil wealth of Kirkuk is already divided between the federal government and the KRG by a formula that gives 17 percent to Kurdistan. A territorial compromise can also be reached, but high-level and tough diplomacy will be required. '

And, it appears that I am getting my wish early and that President-elect Obama is already signalling a personal interest in resolving the Kirkuk issue before it explodes into yet another Iraqi civil war.

It should be remembered that it is entirely possible that such a civil war would inexorably draw the US military right back into Iraq on a large scale, and so avoiding it is potentially central to the success of the Obama administration.

Biden also seems to be playing a little hard ball with the Iraqis, warning them that the US cannot afford, given the financial crisis, to go on spending billions a week in Iraq, and that they had better get their act together and reconcile with one another, because we are not going to be there as referees much longer. This is also a welcome message, though I am afraid some Iraqi leaders view the US as standing in the way of their getting a good bead on their rivals, and would be glad to have the US out of the way so they could take a clean shot.